The Caribbean Number Behind the Panama Shock: US$8 to 10 Billion

The signal

Measure the exposure before it measures you.

The CARICOM Private Sector Organisation estimates that US$8 to 10 billion of CARICOM's annual imports is exposed to the Canal's transit restrictions, with US$4.5 to 7 billion transiting the waterway directly.

Exposed does not mean lost. It identifies trade that depends on a waterway the region does not govern. With the Canal operating at 32 daily slots since 15 September and a difficult 2027 dry season possible, institutions need to map the risk by product, route and port rather than treat it as one regional total.

For ports, fewer calls and bunched arrivals can alter berth planning and dwell times. For customs, freight and low-water surcharges may become valuation questions. For finance ministries, higher CIF values may raise ad valorem collections while also increasing living costs. The wider lesson from this issue—from networked enforcement to importer identity and advance passenger data—is that visibility is part of the border itself.

Trade is negotiated in conference rooms. It is delivered at the border, through the institutions that make it work.